The Constitution of the United States clearly lays out that due process applies to “all persons”, not just citizens. The Trump administration is clearly trying to challenge that with Abrego Garcia case as they sent him, a legal resident, to a prison in El Salvador alleging that he is a member of a Venezuelan gang without giving him due process. Aside from whether or not there is evdience to substantiate that, it doesn’t matter because he is owed his time in court. The Trump administration clearly does not care even when instructed by courts at multiple levels to return him. Just today the president of El Salvador stated that, after a meeting with Trump at the White House, that he would not send back Mr. Garcia.

This is clearly a test case to see what Mr. Trump can get away with, and if the Supreme Court does not stand up to this then we are in trouble as a country. Equal protection of the law applies to everyone within the borders of the United States, not just those who are citizens of the U.S. If that truly goes away, then who can spare us from the arbitrary whims of whatever man or woman happens to occupy the presidency? We already have a president who is essentially immune from facing prosecution. Congress and the courts need to step it up, or the consequences will be dire. Congress should pass an immigration reform law that will both secure the border, and give some protections to people who are here legally, and for those who are undocumented, send them to the back of the line so they wait their turn along with those trying to get in legally. We should also be making it easier to enter the country legally as we need more people, not less. Also, making it easier to enter the coutnry legally and more difficult to enter illegally will incentivize people outside to wait for legal entrance. The Courts must speak firmly to bind the President to adhering to the rule of law and follow due process. If the President refuses, then Congress has the duty to impeach Trump and remove him from office.

I wish I could nuance this and offer something to assuage the alarm, but in this instance, I don’t see much nuance here. Either due process and equal protection apply to all, or they apply to none.

This week Trump implemented his tariffs universally at 10% and much higher tariffs than that on some countries in particular. Although a few Republicans protested, the vast majority have been deathly silent. The party that claimed to stand for economic freedom has been completely silenced as they have been bound to their leader. I take no delight in this as I wasa a Republican because I believed (and still do) in the freedom of the individual to pursue their lot in life as much as possible as they see fit in both the economic and civic spheres of life. It became apparent several years ago that the GOP had abandoned these commitments, and has wholly embraced power to implement reactionary policies and just plain old authoritarianism.

Free trade is a critical part of economic freedom. Not only does it tie the world together in largely peaceful ways, it is the freedom of people to purchase goods and services from wherever they wish to. It also allows different countries to more efficiently allocate resources to industries that it has a higher degree of ability to specialize in. To be a service based economy is not a bad thing, and America makes a lot of things, but it is mostly high-end things like jets, and other expensive goods. We should not wish to go back to making textiles and paper. We aren’t getting screwed over by other countries because of trade, but we are richer overall for the trade environment we have lived in for 80 years. As Tyler Cowen has noted, we will be poorer and have a future with few and more expensive choices. We did this to ourselves.

One of the things I want to use this blog for is documenting my thoughts and feelings over the next four years of the Trump presidency. Obviously there is much to be uncertain of as we ultimately don’t know what he is going to do. As Matt Yglesias has pointed out in his latest newsletter at Slow Boring Trump is a liar and his followers know he is a liar and that is part of the reason they like him. I think that a lot of his policies will be bad for the economy and our civic culture. But I’m also concerned as someone who serves in the military with his foreign policy and how that will impact my life and the life of my family.

Today he is expected to sign close to or more than 100 executive orders. Doing everything from declaring national emergencies at the border and energy to changing the names of the Gulf of Mexico to the Gulf of America and Mt. Denali to Mt. McKinley. Makes me think of Governors of Maine LePage and Mills trading over what the sign at the border of Maine and New Hampshire on I-95 says. Thankfully he also clarified for everyone that there are only two genders, male and female (hopefully the sarcasm there can be detected). The big item that the news media seems to be taking is Trump saying that his inauguration brings to end a period of American decline.

I should say up front that my biggest concerns are less about Trump making himself into an authoriatrian dictator, and more that our political institutions will corrupt from within and the free culture that we have known that is based on our political system will slowly deteriorate. Granted that this has been happening off and on for a while, having a bunch of very rich dudes able to basically manipulate our system with money, while others exploit the people seems like a recipe for disaster. Oligarchy combined with kleptocracy is how many republics have met their fate. Hopefully by keeping our eyes open and thinking through what is happening we can arrest the rot that threatens to overwhelm the system.

That being said, I don’t think this has to mean the end of the American experiment in self-governance. This country has gone through many dark periods in the past and I see no reason why it could not emerge from this as well. I also don’t want to just offer up cynical takes either and disparage everything the new administration does. I want to tell the truth as I see it with full honesty. That is what any thinking person ought to offer at this time where there will be so much lying and deceit.

I was reading Taeggan Goddard’s excellent Political Wire and he had a great piece of analysis, called “Out of Touch”. It’s behind a gateway I believe, but he highlighted that the one thing that all the pieces by Democrats trying to figure out what went wrong have in common is that Democrats are out of touch with the people whose votes they need. I think that is the smartest piece I have come across so far. Democrats haven’t been able to truly connect with people they need for a long time. This is why they didn’t believe that Vice President Harris genuinely had their best interest in mind. Why they think that Democrats are more focused on trans-rights than the working class voters they need to win. As others have pointed out, this isn’t a matter of policy to the extent that President Biden had many policies that were good for workers. But he was not a good spokesperson, and any good was overshadowed by the inflation that lasted for two years.

I don’t think there are easy answers here, but clearly new leaders are needed that can connect to people in a new way. It’s not just a matter of formulating a new message and pandering. Because Democrats believe that government can be used to do good for people, policies should be able to be formulated that can meet people where they are at and the problems that they face. Democrats need to prioritize policies that will open doors to allow people to move up in society and encourage economic growth that redounds to the benefit of all Americans. As important as redistributing that growth is, growth in itself needs to be a priority. People don’t just want to feel like they are dependent, they also want to feel like they are getting ahead.

One other thought I have is that President Obama wanted to be a transformation president who ushered in a new Democratic majority. Instead, with Trump’s win it feels more like Obama was actually the last president of an old order. We have a new one that Biden never actually fully rolled back. Democrats will be pivoting from here and we will see how things unfold.

So Donald Trump has been elected president once again. I have had a feeling for a while that this would happen, but was hoping it would not be the case. It turns out the sense of doom felt by Democrats was justified. Mr. Trump will take the presidency having most likely secured the popular vote for the first time for him, as well as the first time for a Republican in 20 years. It troubles me the extent to which the American people have been so clearly willing to entrust themselves to a man who is so fully unfit for office, especially when there was a person running against him in Harris who was plenty qualified for it. What I want to do though here is step back and take a look at the election and what might be gleaned from it. I think an important aspect here is how much Biden was disapproved of by the electorate primarily because of inflation, regardless of how much blame he actually bears for that.

But it does bring me to what I think is an important observation about people and their motivations. People crave security. I’m definitely not saying that this is the only reason Trump won. People are complex and there are all kinds of motivations going on underneath. However, I do think that security is a unifying theme that bridges the reasons that people voted for Trump. I think people are primarily motivated by concerns about security, whether that be economic or otherwise. The pandemic itself was a massive breach of peoples feelings of security of their health, and then inflation brought fears of peoples’ feelings of security in regards to the economy. Add massive migrant flows to the equation and the recipe is ripe for people turning to someone who pledges to bring them the security they are craving. Democrats did try to play on another aspect of peoples security, and that would be the security of our form of government, but ultimately that is an abstraction that just doesn’t cut through to most people. When Biden was elected people were hoping to go back to the way things were before the pandemic, and unfortunately, they don’t feel like he did that. So they hope that Trump will be able to do that. Color me skeptical.

The best opportunity Democrats would have had would have been for President Biden to have announced in 2023 that he was not running for reelection and allow an actual primary to take place that would have been competitive and have brought candidates who had no ties to the current administration. It is still possible though that Trump might have been any Democrat in hindsight, but that’s a tough counterfactual.

People turn to government for security. They always have, and always will. When there is an absence of legitimate forms of power, then illegitimate forms will take its place in a vacuum. Democrats failed to address those concerns, and we all pay the price now. Liberalism must find a way to return to addressing people’s needs for security in a way that marries the principles of liberal democracy and capitalism, to their immediate needs. Somewhere along the way that plot seems to have been lost. It is no longer to enough just to say “Trump bad” and “GOP bad”. Lord willing, this is the last time Trump is able to run anyway. Democrats lost ground across the board and will need some extensive soul searching to repair itself and win back people’s trust.

For a few years now the country has been dealing with skyrocketing housing prices that were driven by a variety of factors. A large factor is that the supply of housing never actually caught back up after the Great Recession. Combined with increased demand during and after the pandemic, along with interest rates that were sent up because of inflation, pushed housing costs beyond what many are able to afford.

In the current election cycle, both candidates have (sort of) put forward policies to address the price of housing. Vice President Harris wants to incentivize the building of more housing as well as provide inducements for first time home buyers to help with costs. Former President Trump wants to deport millions of illegal immigrants because he blames housing prices on the immigrants “invading” our borders. It seems plainly obvious to me that the Vice President’s plan is much closer to actually addressing the problem of housing costs. Supply has simply not kept up with demand in any meaningful way.

Given how close the polls are, I want to stop and think about what if Trump wins. Undoubtedly, many of his supporters believe his rhetoric about illegal immigrants causing housing inflation, and even those who don’t agree, but vote for him still probably don’t have a problem with that rhetoric. If Trump wins, without any movement to actually build more housing, I’m inclined to think that people don’t actually want more housing built. There are perhaps more people that are NIMBYs (not in my backyard) than YIMBYs (Yes in my backyard) people. Perhaps, what people actually want isn’t to address problems in the country, but rather to have a scapegoat to blame the ills of the country on and take it out on said scapegoat. In this case the scapegoat being undocumented migrants coming across the southern border. Illegal immigration (and “bad” trade deals) really have become the blame for anything and everything that has gone wrong in this country. If we simply get rid of illegal immigrants and set tariffs across the board at 10-20%, then Trump will have made America great again.

Now none of this is actually true. Illegal immigrants have not caused the inflation in housing prices or in general. Illegal immigrants have not caused massive crime waves. In fact, undocumented migrants are less likely to commit crimes than native-born Americans, regardless of anecdotes people have. But we increasingly live in a society where evidence and facts don’t matter. What matters whatever our tribe says against them. Throughout history the scapegoat mechanism has been responsible for the deaths of millions of people. Rene Girard laid out a theory of the scapegoat and his theory of mimetic desire. He actually had a quite original atonement theory in Christianity where Jesus is the final scapegoat. The Jewish leaders blamed him for all their problems as did the Romans in that region. Christians should know better, and yet too often we don’t.

If our country really is in the place where so many of our fellow citizens would rather scapegoat an entire people rather than deal with facts and evidence to actually address the real situation, then we are not in a good place as a society and I fear where that will lead us. Hopefully November 5 doesn’t turn out that way.

The current state of the race is fascinating.

1. We have a strong economy, even though many don't feel that way.
2. Unemployment is near historical lows.
3. Inflation is back down to roughly where the Fed target is.  Also, short of a severe 	
recession or depression, prices are not going back to where they were before the 
recent inflation spike.
4. Gas prices have remained far below the pace of inflation.
5. Border crossings are the lowest they've been in years and violent crime has fallen 		
to historic lows.  

What is so interesting is that with all that said, solely because of the recent bout of inflation and immigration surge, if it was Nikki Haley or any other sane Republican, I’m convinced the Democrats would be getting trounced right now. But Republicans decided to nominate Trump for a third time and thus have a seriously close election on their hands. Republicans have only themselves to blame if Trump, once again, lets them down.

There is a thought exercise I have when thinking about liberalism in the classical sense. Imagine that you live in the U.S. 50 years from now, but there was an infusion of Indian immigrants and there is now a large majority Hindu population. Meanwhile the evangelical Christian numbers have shrunk to make up a small minority of the population. Now, imagine that Hindus make up a majority of the Republican party in this future and the conservatives have passed a bill that would make it illegal to farm cattle and eat beef of any sort. After all, cows are sacred and the slaughter of them is a holocaust that is offensive to the nostrils of Hindu’s and is a reflection of the truth in their religion. Does it not matter that there is a Christian contingent, amongst other groups, whose beliefs differ and say that eating beef is acceptable? It should, but not according to the Hindu majority.

Now transfer back to modern day America. Evangelicals believe just as strongly as that Hindu majority that abortion is evil in the eyes of God as well as same sex relationships. Does it not matter that there are others who do not hold to these beliefs? In a liberal society, the protection of the beliefs and rights of minorities and smaller groups is paramount. Although it would be great if, as Aaron Ross Powell argues, we could celebrate differences, at a minimum a pluralistic society requires toleration. Unlike the “Dont Tread on Me” cry, it requires us to instead advocate that the government “Don’t Tread on Anyone”. To advocate for the rights and liberties of those not strong enough to be in the majority. This thought experiment doesn’t answer every question and conflict, it does serve me well as a guiding thought. Christians should not advocate that our religious views apply to others via law because legislating morality doesn’t work, but because from the perspective of governing, politics is not the place to hash out those differences in values.